Summary
A framework for projecting immigrant student enrolment across Canada’s elementary, secondary, and postsecondary systems
This report presents a modelling framework to estimate how changes in immigration—covering permanent residents (PRs) and non‑permanent residents (NPRs)—affect the number of immigrant students across Canada’s elementary, secondary and postsecondary systems. Using historical age distributions, retention rates and participation rates, the approach captures both the impact of new admission cohorts and the continued presence of earlier cohorts, allowing enrolment effects to be tracked over time. The framework can be scaled to a range of immigration scenarios and is used to support projections for 2025–2030 to inform planning for educational resources.